squire's stable: "conspiracy theory"

it's good to be a squire.

i’m just a squire

I’m just a squire and still learning about chivalry and all that stuff that goes with it, but did you ever notice how often the phrase “conspiracy theory” is used by our betters?

I am remiss in my manners. Greetings! We are well met. I do apologize for my perfumery, as I recently come from caring for my good knight’s horse - cheval du chevalier in the parlance. Haha, we squires do love our airs. One must to not be overcome.

Now, where was I.

Ah yes, while diligently transferring previously alluded dust from destrier to my, ahem, derriere and all other parts unmentionable, reflections about life’s great questions tend to gently rise and consume my thoughts. Rest assured the cheval is all taken care of for the day.

Presently I arrive at my reason for prying a few moments of your time, alas at a risk of trying your patience beyond its kind capacity, against which I do pray your indulgence.

“theory”

It sure seems that many in the noble class do toss about with alacrity the terms “Conspiracy Theory” and “Conspiracy Theorist”.

I know this feels like the place where I should insert several illustrative examples. However, the parchment does not seem to want to upload. As I was listening to what my good duck had to say in response to my query (perusing search results), it occurred to me that I don’t want to share these links and drive traffic to these sites, or abuse you, my fair reader. So no parchments inserted here for such (mis)uses of the term; you may easily find them.

Let me clarify of what I endeavor to speak. I refer here not to the beliefs themselves, but at the functional use of the label. Whether the labeled belief is one that a good many of us would agree is in great need of good evidence, or the belief is a weapon used by one tribe to hurt another tribe (mis- and disinformation), I’m puzzled by the contextual use of the phrase as compared to the literal meaning of the phrase. The words seem to mean the opposite of how they are used.

If I were a great author of books and plays, I might create a character that keeps saying something. Then I would create a second character that makes the insightful observation that the first character seems to be misusing that word or phrase.

Okay, I here offer un bonbon, available on the KINGDOM'S TUBE OF PARCHMENTS.

Why, you say, do I think “Conspiracy Theory” and “Conspiracy Theorist” is misused?

I think with a little hint you will be right there with me.

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scientific method

We are all familiar with the scientific method, so you will catch on quickly. In the scientific method, one forms a “hypothesis” based on noticing some natural phenomena and becoming curious. A hypothesis is conjecture that might be true, or may not be true. Stating the hypothesis does not make it true, nor does restating the hypothesis in a louder voice or bolder font.

As a practitioner of said method, one does not stop at formulating a hypothesis. One designs experiments in such a way so that the anticipated observations (data) will enable one to determine whether the hypothesis holds or should be discarded in favor of a new and (possibly) better hypothesis.

If the experiments are strong enough, either individually or as a collective, and if the supportive data from the observations are of sufficient quality, the hypothesis can be promoted to the status of “theory”.

You may not believe the word of a squire.

What does a dictionary have to say about the definition of the word “theory”? I’ll skip the popular woke dictionary for now, and ask my duck to find something more substantial that describes “theory” in the context of the scientific method.

My duck found THIS PARCHMENT, by Cambridge University Press, which has a nice diagram on page 5 that shows that a theory arises when it consistently describes and predicts observed results.

The author, Jose Wudka, goes on to point out the importance of realizing that following the scientific method leads to believable results.

This is the real ‘why’ behind the use of the scientific method.

Results produced in the manner of the scientific method can be duplicated by others, which lends additional credibility to a hypothesis that is found to hold with observation. That’s part of the consistency that needs to be established to become a theory. Scientific history is salted and peppered with wonderful examples of simple, repeatable experiments that advanced our knowledge and promoted their target hypothesis into theory.

HERE’S ANOTHER PARCHMENT, also by Cambridge University Press, that defines theories on page 6 in Section 1.3. The authors, Matthew Parkin, Claire Brown, Melissa Lorenz, and Jules Robson, write that theories are “intended to be accurate models of the world that can be used to predict what will happen in different situations.”

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poetic muse and the punch line

I’m just a squire so I like to ask about things. Let me ask again about theory¹,

      Conspiracy theory
                   a pejorative
               yet accurate world model?

So which is it:

• hypothesis shown to be baseless, or

• theory shown to be consistent with observed evidence?

Do the noble pejorative-flinging accusers believe in science? They say they do, right? How often do you hear them say the conspiracy theories are not supported by “the science”?

By labeling an idea as a “conspiracy theory”, our noble accusers are pretty much acknowledging that the idea is backed by a lot of consistent, supportive, observational evidence.

How much more oxymoronic than that can it get?

Talk about self-debunking.

Here’s a suggestion for our noble accusers. Please use the proper pejoratives :

• “Conspiracy Hypothesis”, and

• “Conspiracy Hypothesizer”.

the wrap

Okay, my new acquaintances, I was just curious and wanted to try to get an answer to clear that up.

We have reviewed the definition of “theory”, and found its use to be contradictory in the pejorative “Conspiracy Theory”.

Do you think that Merriam Webster (peek at your own peril) will now go change the definition for “theory”, …

• kinda like what the FDA did with the word “vaccine”?

• kinda like what mainstream media has done with the term “anti-vaxxer”?

  • Oh by the way, after reading JFK Jr.’s impressive tome, I think the folks who fit the prior definition of “anti-vaxxer” were onto something.

• kinda like what astronomers did for the word “planet”?

  • Sorry, Pluto. I know, raw deal.

One final parting thought, together with my thanks for your time, kind readers.

We can now establish the semantic equivalence, in the sense that our noble accusers use them, between the expressions:

• “Conspiracy Theory”, and

• “Safe and Effective”.

I’m just a squire, but I don’t think it means what you think it means.

Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

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I hope it was.

1. thîr′ē