Hot Tubs, Broken Records, Sea Shells, and Models
How a 41-second Video by The Weather Channel Leads to a Brief Post from a Morning of Writing
Hot Tubs
Remember the ‘oceans are a hot tub’ scare last summer? See reference (0), below. That’s a teat that needed milking again, apparently.
Corollary to the ‘Never let a good opportunity go to waste’ principle is the ‘Milk it for all it’s worth then milk it again, and again’ principle.
A recent weather channel video (1) warns that scientists studying the impact of last summer’s hot tub surveyed 1500 staghorn corals to find 78% demised - but several other species fared better, and it wasn’t clear in the video whether this was an annual survey and whether there could be other causes. But, narrative, right?
An NOAA source is cited, likely this (2), which in turn cites a pay-walled journal article in Science (3,4).
Just so we’re clear on motivations, U. of Queensland professor and lead author of the Science article Ove Hoegh-Guldberg said, “This information comes at a critical point where commitment to climate change appears to be slipping in the case of many nations.”
Broken Records
The NOAA article repeats the claim that July 2023 was Earth’s warmest July on record (5), describing the month as ‘record-shattering’. For an alternative analysis, see John Dee’s work, such as (6).
Just by way of observation, the NOAA news website appears filled with articles about various records being broken. Sounds like they took a page from baseball commentators.
The NOAA article goes on to warn of more broken records, including the quote “The trouble now is that impacts appear to be rolling into a vast, record-breaking global event,” - William Skirving (NOAA Coral Reef Watch), Science article coauthor.
Is NOAA turning into some bizarre form of onomatopoeia, where they sound like what they say: becoming a broken record about broken records?
Just to be sure we all understand the extremity of the situation, U. of Queensland ecologist Sophie Dove, another coauthor of the Science article, is also quoted in the NOAA article as saying “Corals are literally dying before they even have a chance to bleach.”
Marsha, bereaved wife of staghorn coral Donald who died suddenly this year, remembered him fondly, saying, ‘there wasn’t a hornier stag to be found anywhere in our reef.’
Seashells, and Models
Returning to the hot tub teat, one who asks Professor Duck to search the internet may find that some were ahead of the hot tub curve.
An article on the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution website (7) describes the work of scientists who studied dinosaur-aged sea shell chemistry to estimate ancient ocean temperatures and CO2 levels, and who then advocate for cranking up the climate fear model parameters to juice up ocean temperatures. This does make one wonder the exact relationship between shell chemistry and ocean temperature, and whether other factors play a role, such as depth or murkiness, e.g. due to dissolved organic matter.
The result of their study?
“They determined that ocean temperatures in region [sea floor northeast of South America near Suriname] ranged between 91° and 107°F (33° and 42°C) between 84 million and 100 million years ago, … In the same region now, temperatures range between 75° and 82°F (24° and 28°C).”
The article quotes paleoclimatologist Karen Bice as saying, “These [ancient ocean] temperatures are off the charts from what we’ve seen before,” and, “if the models are not right, society is not well informed or well served.”
The scientists estimated “CO2 levels during the same time span were 1,300 to 2,300 parts per million (ppm), compared with 380 ppm today.”
When those ancient levels of CO2 were put into the then-current climate models, and when “extraordinarily high” but unquantified levels of methane - a substance that purportedly ‘traps heat 10 times more effectively than carbon dioxide’ - were also added to the models, the models produced ocean temperatures lower than the ancient, according to the article. There can’t be anything wrong with the ancient ocean temperature estimate, so therefore, change the climate models!
CO2 is also the subject of some analysis by John Dee, such as (8).
The Woods Hole article goes on to assert warmer ocean temperatures lead to more evaporation, changes precipitation patterns, and more intense storms. This latter point also gets a localised treatment by Mr. Dee (9,10).
What to make of all this?
Is there a climate emergency? Some think not (11).
Are climate ‘scientists’ swimming out of their lane into activism, and producing narrative rather the truth? Some think so (12).
Are there natural drivers that dominate climate effects, such as solar irradiance and volcanic activity, resulting in some species demising and others arising? Is so, are those impact to be considered “good”, bad”, or “indifferent” (or “ugly”)?
If there is a climate emergency, is it even within our power to prevent it? Will the results of human efforts to ‘change the climate’ make us better off or worse off?
Let me know what you think in the comments.
References
URLs retrieved March 9, 2024
(0) https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/25/florida-ocean-temperatures-hot-tub-extreme-weather
Dani Anguiano and agencies, emphasis theirs, July 25, 2023
(1) https://weather.com/science/environment/video/last-years-marine-heat-wave-a-major-blow-to-florida-coral
Uncredited, “Now playing”, March 9, 2024.
(2) https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-university-of-queensland-report-marine-heatwaves-severely-impacting-corals
John Leslie, Dec. 7, 2023, updated Dec. 8, 2023, “NOAA, University of Queensland report: Marine heatwaves severely impacting corals”
(3) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk4532
Hoegh-Guldberg O, Skirving W, Dove S, Spady B, Norrie A, Geiger E, Liu G, De La Cour J, Manzello DP, Dec. 7, 2023, “Coral Reefs in Peril in a Record-Breaking Year.”
(4) https://www.science.org/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1126%2Fscience.adk4532&file=science.adk4532_sm.pdf
(5) https://www.noaa.gov/news/record-shattering-earth-had-its-hottest-july-in-174-years
John Bateman, August 14, 2023, “Record shattering: Earth had its hottest July in 174 years”
(6) https://open.substack.com/pub/jdeeclimate/p/liar-liar-pants-on-fire
John Dee, Aug. 13, 2023, “Liar, Liar, Pants On Fire”
(7) https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/an-ocean-warmer-than-a-hot-tub/
Lonnie Lippsett, Feb 17, 2006, “An Ocean Warmer Than a Hot Tub”
(8) https://open.substack.com/pub/jdeeclimate/p/human-co2-emissions-as-an-impulse
John Dee, Oct 6, 2023, Human CO2 Emissions As An Impulse to Atmospheric CO2”
(9) https://open.substack.com/pub/jdeeclimate/p/putting-the-wind-up-part-1
John Dee, Nov 1, 2023, “Putting The Wind Up… (part 1)”
(10) https://open.substack.com/pub/jdeeclimate/p/singin-in-the-rain-part-1
John Dee, Jan 19, 2024, “Singin’ In The Rain (part 1)”
(11) https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/article/meteorologists-scientists-explain-why-there-is-no-climate-emergency-5489139
Katie Spence, Sep 13, 2023, “Meteorologists, Scientists Explain Why There Is ‘No Climate Emergency’”
(12) https://www.ceres-science.com/post/dr-willie-soon-s-interview-by-tucker-carlson-december-2023
Willie Soon, Tucker Carlson, interview Jan 9, 2024
also available at:
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1744777758507504061
https://tuckercarlson.com/the-tucker-carlson-encounter-fossil-fuels/
Note on References
I’m a software engineer so I like to index things beginning with 0. It’s also a handy device when one reorders a sentence with a reference to the beginning without renumbering the first part if the list that formerly began with 1. Hypothetically.
Here I am, sitting back and watching the latest info on the Atlantic Oscillating Current flow starting to jink up, all the while knowing the Beaufort Gyre is 'late' for it's cyclical discharge.
Europe, in particular, will be begging for a hot tub ocean .
The following post to the blog of the Manhattan Contrarian may be of interest to you and your readers:
New York's energy implosion has a readily ascertainable cause. The cause is for a "complex" physical system to be mistaken for a "non-complex" physical system in the construction of the model that is used in determination of New York's energy policy. The "non-complex" physical system that is used for this purpose does not exhibit the property of stability while the "complex" physical system that is not used would exhibit this property. In his scientific research, the academic psychologist Matias Desmet has discovered that for a "complex" physical system to be mistaken for a "non-complex" physical system in the governance of a civilization is a precursor to imposition of totalitarian rule over this civilization. See Desmet's book entitled "The Psychology of Totalitarian Rule" for details on how this happns.
Terry Oldberg
Engineer/Scientist/Public Policy Researcher
Los Altos Hills, CA
1-650-518-6636 (mobile)